Progress is current investable assets divided by today's FIRE number. The future target rises with inflation, so the portfolio can grow while the finish line also moves. The scenario spread is more useful than any single projected month.
A constant-return model cannot reproduce an early bear market, job loss or healthcare shock. Keep an emergency reserve outside the modeled portfolio and test a lower withdrawal rate for retirements longer than 30 years.
Your financial independence number and estimated date
Your FIRE number is annual spending divided by the withdrawal rate you choose to test. The projection then compounds your current portfolio and monthly investments while increasing the target with inflation. Use a cautious return and compare scenarios: the result is a planning range, not a promise, because taxes, fees, market sequence and future spending can change the outcome.
Progress is current investable assets divided by today's FIRE number. The future target rises with inflation, so the portfolio can grow while the finish line also moves. The scenario spread is more useful than any single projected month.
A constant-return model cannot reproduce an early bear market, job loss or healthcare shock. Keep an emergency reserve outside the modeled portfolio and test a lower withdrawal rate for retirements longer than 30 years.
UNDERSTAND THE NUMBERS
Fixed educational example · independent of your inputs above. $ means US dollars; these are not current rate quotes or return forecasts.
Assume annual spending of $48,000 in today's money. Divide by three different withdrawal rates. These are initial target calculations; EconoPi's timeline then raises the target with your inflation assumption.
| Withdrawal assumption | Spending multiple | Target today |
|---|---|---|
| 4% | 25.0× | $1,200,000 |
| 3.5% | 28.6× | $1,371,429 |
| 3% | 33.3× | $1,600,000 |
At 4%, an extra $500 of monthly spending raises the target by $150,000. This is why overlooking an expense can matter as much as changing the investment return. Include irregular bills as monthly equivalents before treating the target as a useful planning number.
Reaching the line is not proof of lifelong financial independence. A constant-return path cannot represent bad returns early in retirement. Taxes on withdrawals and healthcare or housing shocks can also change the spending need.
Increase spending by 10% and lower the withdrawal assumption separately. Record which change moves the target date more, then test them together rather than adjusting the return upward to recover the original date.
Check income at a specific retirement age →Prepared by EconoPi · examples and explanations reviewed September 19, 2026. Tables are our calculations under stated assumptions, not forecasts or recommendations by the referenced organizations.
At the common 4% withdrawal rate, multiply annual spending by 25. Spending $48,000 a year produces a $1.2 million target in today's dollars.
The calculator raises the future target each month so the projected portfolio and living-cost goal are both shown in nominal future dollars.
No withdrawal rate is certified safe by this calculator. It sets a target using constant growth, without simulating retirement withdrawals or bad return sequences. Compare several rates and spending assumptions.
No. It models an investment portfolio only. Budget pensions separately with their actual starting dates; subtracting a future pension from spending today can understate the funds needed before benefits begin.
All math runs in your browser and your inputs are never sent to a server. Settings are saved locally and share links encode the state in the URL. For information only — not investment or tax advice.